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Project 5: Evaluating Hypotheses

Intro ] [ 5.1 ] [ 5.2 ] [ 5.3 ] [ 5.4 ] [ 5.5 ] [ 5.6 ]

Up: Machine Learning ]

Exercise 5.2


  1. Consider a learned hypothesis, h, for some boolean concept. When h is tested on a set of 100 examples, it classifies 83 correctly. What is the standard deviation and the 95% confidence interval for the true error rate for Error D ( h )?

    17 / 100 = 0.17
    100 ( 0.17 )( 1 - 0.17 ) = 14.11
    square root ( 14.11 ) = 3.76
    3.76 / 100 = 0.0376
    = standard deviation estimate for Error D ( h )

    95% confidence interval for Error D ( h ) =
    Error D ( h ) +- 1.96 * ( square root [ Error D ( h ) * ( 1 - Error D ( h ) ) / n ] )
    = 0.17 +- 1.96 ( square root [ 0.17 * ( 1 - 0.17 ) / 100 ] )
    = 0.17 +- 0.0736


by: Keith A. Pray
Last Modified: July 4, 2004 7:59 AM
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