|
Project 5: Evaluating Hypotheses
Exercise 5.2
-
Consider a learned hypothesis, h, for some boolean concept.
When h is tested on a set of 100 examples,
it classifies 83 correctly.
What is the standard deviation and the 95% confidence interval
for the true error rate for Error D ( h )?
17 / 100
|
=
|
0.17
|
100 ( 0.17 )( 1 - 0.17 )
|
=
|
14.11
|
square root ( 14.11 )
|
=
|
3.76
|
3.76 / 100
|
=
|
0.0376
|
|
=
|
standard deviation estimate for
Error D ( h )
|
|
95% confidence interval for
Error D ( h ) =
|
|
Error D ( h ) +- 1.96
* ( square root [ Error D ( h ) *
( 1 - Error D ( h ) ) / n ] )
|
|
=
|
0.17 +- 1.96 ( square root [ 0.17 * ( 1 - 0.17 ) / 100 ] )
|
|
=
|
0.17 +- 0.0736
|
|
|